Giuliani's possible run in 2008
After former Mayor Giuliani recently filed the necessary papers to form an exploratory committee (a first step in a Presidential run), there has been endless speculation about his potential candidacy including advice from political consultants in this Sunday's New York Times. My thoughts are as follows: he was an excellent Mayor and would probably make an excellent President, but Rudy Giuliani can't win the Republican nomination.
It has little to do with his social positions on issues like guns, gay marriage, and abortion. The gun control issue he can chalk up to states' rights as New York City isn't going to have the same gun policy as Nebraska or at least so the logic goes (I have previously blogged that I don’t think states’ rights on guns is a particular good idea but it is the majority opinion right now). He is pro civil union and not gay marriage and while the issue will hurt him in the primary it wouldn't destroy him. More Republicans are coming around to this position and it is judges that matter the most, and he has already been a staunch advocate for Alito and Roberts. His strong position on judges would also help mitigate any fallout from his position on abortion. Furthermore, Giuliani is personally religious and almost became a priest, which would make him more palatable to the religious community who would disagree with some of his positions on social issues.
That said, he still can’t win and the reason is he has too much personal baggage and too many prominent enemies to do so. The African-American community in New York disliked him, including many if not most of its prominent leaders. Former Mayor Koch and Dinkins hate him with Koch actually writing a book about it. His first wife was his cousin, which would strikes voters at least initially as weird and his second wife wouldn't say if she voted for him in his Mayoral re-election campaign and with whom he underwent a very messy and public divorce. One of his deputy mayors Russell Harding was the Liberal party boss’s son who it seemed he appointed (at least in part) in order to help obtain their endorsement. Giuliani’s father was allegedly in the mafia. Bernie Kerik, his former business partner was his former driver and the one he appointed head of the Police Department. While he was quite good as the city’s top police officer, his qualifications probably didn't warrant the job. Kerik’s recent legal problems would also come up in any campaign considering his close business and personal relationship with Giuliani.
This is probably just the tip of the iceberg and more research would probably demonstrate more personal problems. Giuliani could win the nomination with his positions if primary voters were willing to forgo his personal baggage which they would be unlikely to do. I wish the situation was different as I personally like him but I just don’t see any conceivable possibility of his winning the nomination despite the fact that he did such a good job both as mayor and in the aftermath of 9/11.
I suspect he knows this as well, but filed to allow for months of speculation which will help upgrade his political capital and help his business interests. It could also lead to a cabinet position in a Republican presidency and maybe even in a Democratic one. Despite his personal baggage, I believe he could be confirmed and would be a good Attorney General.
It has little to do with his social positions on issues like guns, gay marriage, and abortion. The gun control issue he can chalk up to states' rights as New York City isn't going to have the same gun policy as Nebraska or at least so the logic goes (I have previously blogged that I don’t think states’ rights on guns is a particular good idea but it is the majority opinion right now). He is pro civil union and not gay marriage and while the issue will hurt him in the primary it wouldn't destroy him. More Republicans are coming around to this position and it is judges that matter the most, and he has already been a staunch advocate for Alito and Roberts. His strong position on judges would also help mitigate any fallout from his position on abortion. Furthermore, Giuliani is personally religious and almost became a priest, which would make him more palatable to the religious community who would disagree with some of his positions on social issues.
That said, he still can’t win and the reason is he has too much personal baggage and too many prominent enemies to do so. The African-American community in New York disliked him, including many if not most of its prominent leaders. Former Mayor Koch and Dinkins hate him with Koch actually writing a book about it. His first wife was his cousin, which would strikes voters at least initially as weird and his second wife wouldn't say if she voted for him in his Mayoral re-election campaign and with whom he underwent a very messy and public divorce. One of his deputy mayors Russell Harding was the Liberal party boss’s son who it seemed he appointed (at least in part) in order to help obtain their endorsement. Giuliani’s father was allegedly in the mafia. Bernie Kerik, his former business partner was his former driver and the one he appointed head of the Police Department. While he was quite good as the city’s top police officer, his qualifications probably didn't warrant the job. Kerik’s recent legal problems would also come up in any campaign considering his close business and personal relationship with Giuliani.
This is probably just the tip of the iceberg and more research would probably demonstrate more personal problems. Giuliani could win the nomination with his positions if primary voters were willing to forgo his personal baggage which they would be unlikely to do. I wish the situation was different as I personally like him but I just don’t see any conceivable possibility of his winning the nomination despite the fact that he did such a good job both as mayor and in the aftermath of 9/11.
I suspect he knows this as well, but filed to allow for months of speculation which will help upgrade his political capital and help his business interests. It could also lead to a cabinet position in a Republican presidency and maybe even in a Democratic one. Despite his personal baggage, I believe he could be confirmed and would be a good Attorney General.
posted by The partisan moderate at 7:18 PM
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