The Washington Post political blog has interesting commentary on the 2008 vulnerable House seats. At a time when most Republicans are very pessimistic on the 2008 outlook, I am actually cautiously optimistic. Because of the creation of the minority/majority districts in the House, the political landscape in general where there is more red than blue states, and the overall Conservative bent of this country, the Republicans have a chance to pick up seats and in a good year take back the House and maybe even the Senate.
Some of the pickups in 2006 like the Kansas' 2nd District and the old Delay seat were probably flukes. If the Republicans can recruit good candidates they can win a decent number of these seats back as well as challenge Democratic incumbents in red districts.
In the Senate, Republicans have historically underperformed. In both the 2000 and 2004 elections, President Bush won the vast of majority of states. States like North Dakota and Arkansas should not have two Democratic Senators and if the Republicans run good candidates they will not.
The New NRCC Chairman, Tom Cole, has it right : ("He repeats a pair of facts — that Republicans have their largest minority in the last half-century and that Democrats now hold 61 districts that President Bush carried twice — with the frequency of someone who has been delivering the same argument to donors helping to retire the committee’s $15 million debt.
His pitch is basically this: All variables equal, Republicans have the edge, and they will take the majority again.
“Believe me, if we could carry every congressional district that the Republican [presidential] nominee carries … I would take it right now, sight unseen, end of the game,” Cole said. “And I would bet you we would have the majority."").
Congressman Cole, who I hope and suspect will be more effective than his predecessor, Tom Reynolds, seems to be on the right track. However, if he could just take away one lesson from Rahm Emanuel it should be this: run a strong opponent against your DCCC counterpart, Chris Van Hollen. Reynolds, was in fact paralyzed by the fact that he was in danger of losing and therefore had to spend considerable effort to save his seat at the expense of doing his job at the NRCC. Van Hollen, like Reynolds, is considered to be in a safe seat. However, while the district leans Democratic, it is by no means a safe seat. Connie Morella, a Republican represented the district until a narrow loss to Van Hollen in 2002. Van Hollen, like Reynolds is very likely to hold on to the seat but having a strong opponent will take him off his game and force him to spend less time helping other Democratic candidates.
Some of the pickups in 2006 like the Kansas' 2nd District and the old Delay seat were probably flukes. If the Republicans can recruit good candidates they can win a decent number of these seats back as well as challenge Democratic incumbents in red districts.
In the Senate, Republicans have historically underperformed. In both the 2000 and 2004 elections, President Bush won the vast of majority of states. States like North Dakota and Arkansas should not have two Democratic Senators and if the Republicans run good candidates they will not.
The New NRCC Chairman, Tom Cole, has it right : ("He repeats a pair of facts — that Republicans have their largest minority in the last half-century and that Democrats now hold 61 districts that President Bush carried twice — with the frequency of someone who has been delivering the same argument to donors helping to retire the committee’s $15 million debt.
His pitch is basically this: All variables equal, Republicans have the edge, and they will take the majority again.
“Believe me, if we could carry every congressional district that the Republican [presidential] nominee carries … I would take it right now, sight unseen, end of the game,” Cole said. “And I would bet you we would have the majority."").
Congressman Cole, who I hope and suspect will be more effective than his predecessor, Tom Reynolds, seems to be on the right track. However, if he could just take away one lesson from Rahm Emanuel it should be this: run a strong opponent against your DCCC counterpart, Chris Van Hollen. Reynolds, was in fact paralyzed by the fact that he was in danger of losing and therefore had to spend considerable effort to save his seat at the expense of doing his job at the NRCC. Van Hollen, like Reynolds, is considered to be in a safe seat. However, while the district leans Democratic, it is by no means a safe seat. Connie Morella, a Republican represented the district until a narrow loss to Van Hollen in 2002. Van Hollen, like Reynolds is very likely to hold on to the seat but having a strong opponent will take him off his game and force him to spend less time helping other Democratic candidates.
posted by The partisan moderate at 2:09 PM
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