Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Charlie Cook has a good analysis of Edwards' 2008 chances.

The money quote:

"With the notable exception of Katie Couric's interview with the Edwards family on CBS' "60 Minutes" Sunday night, the overlooked aspect of this national conversation is that in addition to a grown daughter, the Edwardses have a son and daughter, ages six and eight. Overwhelmingly, this national conversation has been conducted as if they either had no children or their kids were grown and not relevant to the discussion.

The children were a familiar presence on the presidential campaign trail in 2004, but have not been visible in this race, likely only because they have now reached school age. Based on medical statistics, these two children might lose their mother well before they reach adulthood.

The argument that the personal strength and resolve of John and Elizabeth Edwards will work to his benefit in this campaign seems to ignore the likelihood that sooner or later, voters will begin thinking of the implications of the decision to proceed with the campaign for their children. In the background of all this is the death of the Edwardses' 16-year-old son Wade in a 1996 car accident. Edwards went on to run for the Senate and win in 1998.

Their father will be largely gone from their lives for at least another year and their mother will be dividing her time between them, with what is almost certain to be a debilitating cancer therapy, and the campaign trail.

In short, the family will not be together during a very critical period. This is not an attempt to judge the decision that they have made; it is unquestionably theirs to make and their bravery and personal strength through this time is an inspiration to everyone. Instead, it is an attempt to question the call by some that this will become an asset, albeit a tragic one, that could boost Edwards' candidacy. In the end, it is doubtful that this will be how voters see this development."

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