A different take on Northern Virginia
This is a reply from one of the readers of this blog, who happens to live in the DC Metro area and is more knowledgable than me on both Northern Virginia and Virginia politics:
"I have four thoughts on the suburban voter issue. First, as an initial matter, the problem is mischaracterized. It's notthat people who voted Republican ten years ago are now voting Democrat.Rather, those old voters have been diluted by new voters. For example,ten years ago, Faifax County (VA) had 100,000 Republicans and 50,000Democrats. Those 100,000 Republicans are still there, but now there arealso 100,000+ Democrats. On the other hand, ten years ago, LoudonCounty was farm land. Now there are 50,000+ Republican voters there.As long as we stay about even in old suburbs like Fairfax, and keep theedge in new suburbs and exurbs like Loudon, we'll be fine.
Second, we do need to regain our edge on fiscal issues. Democrats havebeen successful in achieving moral relativism on taxes and the deficit.If we regain credibility on those issues -- not a hard task -- we willstrongly improve in the suburbs.
Third, at the state and local level, we need pragmatic candidates.Kilgore didn't lose the governor race in Virginia last year because hewas too conservative. Rather, Kaine won because he talked about roadsand zoning. Maybe those are wonkish issues that favor Democrats, but Ithink they are non-partisan issues. That is exactly how Arnold won inCalifornia and how "we" held the governor's mansion in Massachusetts forso many years, and that is why Democrats have seen modest gains at thestate level. (Sidenote: social wedge issues can work with suburbanvoters, but they have a short shelf -- Kilgore could have been the rightcandidate in 2004, when people were concerned about gay marriage, butnot in 2005, when the issue was passe).
Fourth, we've been so successful in deregulating the economy, that manyvoters in the far west and northeast no longer have an incentive to vote Republican. Similar to point two, once voters start seeing the differences again between Democrats and Republicans on economic issues,we'll see an uptick in suburban/moderate support."
"I have four thoughts on the suburban voter issue. First, as an initial matter, the problem is mischaracterized. It's notthat people who voted Republican ten years ago are now voting Democrat.Rather, those old voters have been diluted by new voters. For example,ten years ago, Faifax County (VA) had 100,000 Republicans and 50,000Democrats. Those 100,000 Republicans are still there, but now there arealso 100,000+ Democrats. On the other hand, ten years ago, LoudonCounty was farm land. Now there are 50,000+ Republican voters there.As long as we stay about even in old suburbs like Fairfax, and keep theedge in new suburbs and exurbs like Loudon, we'll be fine.
Second, we do need to regain our edge on fiscal issues. Democrats havebeen successful in achieving moral relativism on taxes and the deficit.If we regain credibility on those issues -- not a hard task -- we willstrongly improve in the suburbs.
Third, at the state and local level, we need pragmatic candidates.Kilgore didn't lose the governor race in Virginia last year because hewas too conservative. Rather, Kaine won because he talked about roadsand zoning. Maybe those are wonkish issues that favor Democrats, but Ithink they are non-partisan issues. That is exactly how Arnold won inCalifornia and how "we" held the governor's mansion in Massachusetts forso many years, and that is why Democrats have seen modest gains at thestate level. (Sidenote: social wedge issues can work with suburbanvoters, but they have a short shelf -- Kilgore could have been the rightcandidate in 2004, when people were concerned about gay marriage, butnot in 2005, when the issue was passe).
Fourth, we've been so successful in deregulating the economy, that manyvoters in the far west and northeast no longer have an incentive to vote Republican. Similar to point two, once voters start seeing the differences again between Democrats and Republicans on economic issues,we'll see an uptick in suburban/moderate support."
posted by The partisan moderate at 2:53 PM
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