Monday, April 09, 2007

Florida may have got a little more purple

Regardless of the merits of Governor Crist's decision to restore felon voting rights, it appears politically damaging to the Republican Party and maybe even to Governor Crist next time he is up for re-election.

Here is the liberal blogosphere reaction:

"Florida: Republican Gov. Charlie Crist, with a single stroke, made his state more politically competitive for Democrats in the next election cycle by restoring the voting rights of an estimated 515,000 felons who have committed "less serious" (nonviolent) crimes. Salon's Farhad Manjoo gives the implications:

The ex-cons belong to traditionally Democratic demographics -- many are African-American, and many are poor. If they're allowed to vote, they'll likely go to the polls at lower rates than everyone else; Uggen and Manza's work suggests felons turn out to vote at about the half the general turnout rate in any given election. But in a state as closely divided politically as Florida, that could still make all the difference. In the past several decades, say Uggen and Manza, at least two Senate races in Florida would have gone to Democrats instead of Republicans had felons had the right to vote. Buddy McKay would have beaten Connie Mack in 1988, and Betty Castor would have beaten Mel Martinez in 2004. And, of course, the 2000 presidential election would have gone to Al Gore. Uggen and Manza's research suggests Gore might have picked up 60,000 votes from felons."

While this reaction may be overly optimistic on the part of Democrats, the evidence clearly demonstrates that ex-convicts overwhelmingly vote Democrat. If Democrats were smart they would make restoring felon voting rights a top governing priority in states where they control the governor's mansion. They can always point to Governor Crist to insulate themselves from criticism.

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